Know What's Worth Selling Before You Risk Capital.
Turn raw supplier links and quotes into fully audited pre-launch viability decisions. 12-factor landed cost math, explainable 6-dimension MeritScore, and draft-only launch guardrails for Shopify operators.
Forensic Landed Economics Simulator
Test candidate unit economics in real time. Adjust target retail, FOB quotes, freight mode, and CAC to stress-test true Contribution Margin 2 (CM2) and break-even ceilings before spending ad dollars.
Interactive Landed Margin & Sensitivity Graph
Adjust retail price, factory FOB quotes, freight mode, and marketing CAC to inspect how landed unit costs shape your true Contribution Margin 2 (CM2) in real time.
1. Candidate SKU Parameters
2. Landed Waterfall & Verdict
Apex Hydro-Ergonomic Lumbar Cushion
Candidate ID: cand-001 • Primary Supplier: Apex Ergonomics Industrial Ltd
Why Modern Operators Choose MeritSKU
Compare MeritSKU's probabilistic decision engine against fragile spreadsheets, vanity ad-spy scrapers, Amazon FBA estimators, and legacy enterprise ERPs.
| Evaluation Capability | MeritSKU Engine | Manual Spreadsheets | Ad-Spy Scrapers (Minea / PPSPY) | Amazon Tools (Jungle Scout / H10) | Legacy ERPs (NetSuite / SAP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-Factor True Landed Cost Waterfall Landed Economics | ✓Native Integer-Cent Model Evaluates factory FOB, ocean/air dimensional freight, tariffs, payment processing, 3PL pick/pack, and return reserves. | ⚠️Manual & Fragile Formulas Prone to broken cell references, missing freight dimensional weight surcharges, and outdated tariff schedules. | ✕Zero Landed Cost Data Only scrapes public Shopify front-end retail prices with zero visibility into supplier cost structure. | ⚠️Amazon FBA Focus Only Calculates Amazon referral & FBA fulfillment fees; misses custom factory quotes, sea freight, and D2C 3PL fees. | ⚠️Retrospective Accounting Records historical invoices after shipments arrive; requires complex IT configurations to model pre-launch scenarios. |
Pre-Launch CM2 & Sensitivity Matrix Landed Economics | ✓9-Cell Stress Simulation Dynamic retail vs. CAC matrix stress-testing profitability against +20% freight and ad acquisition shocks. | ⚠️Static Single-Point Guess Operators model a single static CAC assumption and are blindsided when Meta/Google ad spend spikes. | ✕Vanity Metrics Only Displays ad impressions, video views, and Facebook likes rather than net profit margins. | ✕ACoS Estimator Only Models Amazon PPC spend but lacks contribution margin stress simulations for standalone D2C storefronts. | ⚠️Zero Pre-Launch Simulation ERPs do not run CAC break-even curve simulations or pre-acquisition stress testing. |
Integer Precision & Anti-Float Drift Mathematical Rigor | ✓Integer Minor Units Stores every currency calculation in minor units (cents) to eliminate binary floating-point rounding drift. | ✕Float Precision Drift IEEE 754 floating-point errors compound across multi-currency conversions and bulk volume tiers. | ✕+/- 40% Error Margin Estimated revenue metrics rely on web-traffic heuristics and rough algorithmic guesses. | ⚠️BSR Estimations Units sold estimated from Best Sellers Rank (BSR) velocity curves with significant discrepancy. | ✓Fixed Decimal Ledgers High precision ledger math, but requires cumbersome enterprise change management to adjust. |
Evidence Provenance & Epistemic Modesty Intelligence & Audit | ✓Tiers 1–5 Provenance Explicit 5-tier classification with deterministic confidence discounting. Zero hallucinated winner promises. | ✕Gut Feeling & Assumption No provenance trail or verification. Operators cannot distinguish verified supplier quotes from assumptions. | ✕Fake "Winner" Hype Promotes dropshipping "winning product" tropes and saturated items that burn ad budget. | ⚠️Keyword Volume Only Tracks Amazon search volume but lacks regulatory compliance checking (FTC, FDA, trademark). | ⚠️Zero Viability Scoring Only tracks SKU inventory balances and purchase orders once products are already manufactured. |
Storefront Safety & Launch Guardrails Storefront Safety | ✓Fail-Closed Draft-Only Immutable invariant: products are only ever pushed as unpublished drafts with cryptographic approval signatures. | ✕Manual Copy-Paste Manual data entry into Shopify admin risks publishing unreviewed products or broken pricing. | ✕Unvetted 1-Click Pushes Promotes 1-click import apps that flood merchant stores with low-quality, uninspected copy and images. | ✕Direct Marketplace Sync Publishes listings directly to Amazon Seller Central without D2C pre-launch approval checkpoints. | ⚠️Complex EDI / Middleware Requires expensive integration middleware (Celigo, Boomi) with fragile batch syncs. |
Time to Decision & Setup Cost Agility & Cost | ✓<60 Secs • From $49/mo Instant evaluation from raw supplier links. Transparent monthly pricing with 30-day Capital Preservation Promise. | ✕4–6 Hours / SKU • High Risk Requires manual research, custom formula building, and ongoing maintenance for every single candidate item. | ✕$99–$299/mo High monthly SaaS fee solely for competitor ad scrape feeds with zero decision support. | ⚠️$79–$199/mo Optimized for Amazon Private Label, leaving D2C Shopify and WooCommerce operators underserved. | ⚠️$50,000+ Setup • 6 Months Astronomical implementation fees and months of systems integrator consulting. |
“We lost $18,000 on ocean container demurrage and float rounding errors hidden inside a complex VLOOKUP.”
“We launched 5 ‘viral winners’ from Minea. All five burned our ad spend because true CAC exceeded product margin.”
“Jungle Scout told us the product had search volume, but gave us zero tools to audit custom factory quotes for our Shopify brand.”
“NetSuite takes months and tens of thousands of dollars just to configure a custom SKU record. MeritSKU gives us answers in 60 seconds.”
Why 85% of E-Commerce Launches Fail
Most brands fail not because their products are poor, but because their pre-launch math ignored real landed unit economics.
Kill the Gross Margin Illusion
Simple gross margins hide true air freight surcharges, payment take-rates, and return reserves. MeritSKU computes full landed Contribution Margin 2 (CM2) across a 9-cell retail vs. CAC matrix before you spend ad dollars.
- • 12-factor landed cost waterfall
- • Dimensional weight air/sea freight
- • Exact CAC break-even curve ceiling
Audit Claims Before Regulators Do
Scan supplier descriptions and marketing copy for FTC, FDA, and trademark violations using isolated prompt sanitizers before listings touch your catalog. Epistemic modesty guarantees zero invented optimism.
- • Tier 1–5 evidence provenance
- • Patent and trademark screening
- • Deterministic confidence discounting
Draft-Only Storefront Protection
An immutable architectural firewall ensures candidate products can only be staged as unpublished drafts in Shopify. Zero risk of customer-facing storefront pollution or unauthorized autonomous live launches.
- • Non-negotiable status: DRAFT
- • SHA-256 digital approval signature
- • Explicit operator sign-off required
The 6-Stage Operating Loop
From raw factory link to staged Shopify draft: a structured, repeatable validation engine.
Intake & Extraction
Paste supplier URLs (AliExpress, 1688, Taobao) or upload quotes. Metadata and packaging specifications extracted in seconds.
Evidence Provenance
Observed factory facts, platform reviews, and market trends classified into Tiers 1 through 5 with verifiable source citations.
Landed Economics
12-factor integer-cent waterfall calculating true COGS, gateway fees, return allowances, CM1 margin, and CM2 breakeven CAC.
MeritScore Algorithm
6-dimension score (0–100) weighting viability, margin health, supplier reliability, demand, competition, and complexity.
Supplier Sourcing Matrix
Compare factory unit prices, sample availability, lead times, and MOQs side-by-side with lowest-cost highlights.
Launch Control & Drafts
Audit trail signature and mandatory operator sign-off stage products as unpublished Shopify drafts. Never publishes live.
Engineered for Commerce Operators
Tailored decision workflows whether you run an established DTC brand, an incubator, or an agency.
DTC Brand Operators
Protect your brand equity and cash runway. Validate new line extensions and accessories before cutting purchase orders.
Catalog Incubators
High-volume SKU screening without spreadsheet chaos. Filter out 80% of unviable proposals in minutes.
Agencies & Consultancies
Deliver branded, institutional pre-launch audit reports to clients that prove mathematically which SKUs to scale.
Stop Launching on Gross Margin Illusions.
Test your next candidate SKU in 60 seconds with integer-cent landed cost modeling, transparent evidence provenance, and draft-only launch control.